Brent Lollis, Ph.D.
AIC Executive Director
On Tuesday January 20th, Barak Obama will be sworn into office as the 44th President of the United States. Joseph R. Biden, formerly the senior senator from Delaware and Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, will also be sworn in as Vice-President. The Obama-Biden Administration will likely demonstrate a decisive break from the past on a range of domestic and foreign policy issues. Although domestic policy will represent the most immediate and serious challenge to the new Administration, foreign policy will necessarily require substantial attention. Certain countries will represent major challenges, including: Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran. Certain key issues will also represent fundamental challenges, especially: global warming, energy, terrorism, and nuclear proliferation. Given these immediate and serious challenges, the new Administration will have little time to design and initiate its new policies. At the same time, major policy mistakes will need to be avoided as they will result in exacerbating the present dangers.
It is important to note that President-elect Obama's key campaign values were "hope" and "change." After having repeated and utilized these two abstract values so frequently, it will be important for the Administration to be able to argue by the time of the next presidential election that "hope" and "change" can be found in a substantial number of U.S. domestic and foreign policy areas. If four years elapse, and these values do not seem to be adequately reflected in policies, then the claim will be made that these campaign values were simply hollow. The question, therefore, is not whether they will be reflected, but in what ways and to what degrees. With respect to the Middle East, and Iran in particular, it will be a challenge to design and initiate new policies that will enhance the safety, security and well-being of the region. Will "hope" and "change" be meaningful values with respect to U.S. foreign policy? Will they be meaningful to U.S. citizens and to Iranian citizens?
The expectations and standards to which a new administration is held must inevitably be lowered. A U.S. presidential campaign, like political campaigns in most democratic systems, will necessarily have a degree of exaggeration. Accordingly, a degree of cynicism may be inevitable. This will be true for both American and Iranian audiences. Already in Iran, a degree a cynicism is sinking in as a result of some of the administrative appointees made by President-elect Obama. In particular, the selections of Hillary Clinton (Secretary of State) and Dennis Ross (Ambassador-at-Large for the Middle East) are worth briefly noting. However, it is simply too early to interpret and to judge these two appointments as to their meanings and implications.
The choice of Hillary Clinton to be the new Secretary of State is not necessarily bad for those who have hopes for a renewed American-Iranian relationship. President Obama will be very busy. It may well be that he has selected Clinton, a perceived hawk with respect to Iran, for reasons other than the initiation of an especially "hard-line" on this country. President Obama will be very busy with the 800 Billion dollar economic stimulus plan, and he will need an experienced foreign policy professional who will be able to design and initiate foreign policies with little waste of time. Senator Clinton already has respect and name recognition throughout the world and, in this sense, is certain to be a tremendous asset to the Obama Administration.
The choice of Dennis Ross to be the new Ambassador-at-Large for the Middle East is not also necessarily a sign proving that the Obama Administration will draw a "hard-line" on Iran. Mr. Ross served under Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush in various foreign policy positions. He was the Special Middle East Coordinator for Bill Clinton. Although there may be some signs that the selection of Mr. Ross points to the Obama Administration's being "tough" on Iran, it should be remembered that the values of "hope" and "change" are also very relevant indicators of the new Administration's policy directions. Mr. Ross has demonstrated that he is a practical person, a serious critic of the current Bush Administration, and a person who is interested in achieving good policy outcomes. President-elect Obama has, since his election on November 4th, made it perfectly clear that he is looking for administrators who are willing to adhere to his policy directions and then to implement policies designed with those goals in mind.
It is far too soon to make a judgment as to the direction that the Obama Administration will take with respect to Iran. Both Senator Obama and Senator Biden, especially with respect to the current administration, have made numerous statements demonstrating an enhanced awareness of the complexities, dynamics and basic facts of the U.S.-Iran relationship. In particular, Senator Obama has made numerous statements about the importance of direct dialogue with Iran. As a well-trained attorney, it is likely that Obama understands the importance of dialogical dynamics in which sitting down and speaking with all parties is critical if one not only seeks to understand a situation but also seeks to achieve an optimal outcome. Furthermore, Senator Biden, having appeared and spoken at an American Iranian Council conference in 2002, has demonstrated a solid understanding of relevant facts and issues. Senator Biden's experience on the Foreign Relations Committee will give him a major and welcome role in future U.S. foreign policy.
The American Iranian Council wishes to extend it congratulations to all those in the new Administration. It is clear that there will be many difficult domestic and foreign policy challenges. It is far too early to pre-judge the directions that this diverse set of individuals will take. For the moment, it seems best to reflect upon the statements of the head of the new administration, President-elect Obama. Accordingly, it seems best to remember the abstract values of "hope" and "change." Although it is hard to know how such abstract values will be written into more specific policies and rules, it is clear that there will be a major attempt to do so. Thus, it will be important to examine the ways and degrees that these values are manifested. The American-Iranian relationship is ready for a new and improved environment.
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